Return to SOEST home page.
Return to NODC home page.
+------------||------------------------------- ||------------------------------+ | || 10% || OPEN | | || HIGHEST || WATER | | FORECAST || WAVE WAVE HEIGHT || WIND WIND SPEED | | DATE || HEIGHTS DIRECTION TENDENCY PRB || SPEED DIRECTION TENDENCY PRB | | -------- || ------- --------- -------- --- || ----- --------- -------- --- | |Tue 9/21/99|| 4 NNW DOWN HIGH || 15 E UP MED | +------------||--------------------------------||------------------------------+ |Wed 9/22/99|| 3 NNW DOWN MED || 20 E UP MED | +------------||--------------------------------||------------------------------+ |Thu 9/23/99|| 2 NW SAME LOW || 20 E SAME LOW | +------------||--------------------------------||------------------------------+ |Fri 9/24/99|| 3 NW UP MED || 20 E DOWN LOW | +------------||--------------------------------||------------------------------+ |Sat 9/25/99|| 3 NNW SAME MED || 15 E SAME LOW | +------------||--------------------------------||------------------------------+Notes: In Country, present swell from 320-330 deg is peaking now and will be on slow decline from same direction into Wed. A storm off Kamchatka could bump our swell up a notch starting late Thu or Fri.
In Town, small SSE lingering in 1-2' range for another day or so.
Windward side 1-2' occn 3' increasing to 2-3' occn 4' Wed with increase in Trades and holding through the period.
Long range: Town side may get a 3-4' SSE (160 deg) around late next Sunday into Monday. Also low odds for a 3' Tasman Sea swell (210 deg) around the same time. No obvious swells above 4' in Country for early next week, but due to complex weather pattern in N. Pacific, very hard to tell that far out in the models. Best hope for big surf in Country is for a typhoon to recurve and come back eastward across N. Pacific. There is one just SSW of Japan now, so stay tuned.
Surf heights are scaled the same as used by the NWS and the radio surf reports, (we all know the wave faces are usually about twice this value). The forecasted height is in feet and represents the 10 per cent highest values for the day. If the waves are 2-4' in the AM and 4-8' in the PM, then the forecasted height for the day will be 8' with a Tendency=UP. Conversely if it is 4-8' in AM and 2-4' in PM, then the forecasted height will be 8' with Tendency=DOWN.
Wave direction lists dominant direction; if two swells of equal energy but different directions are forecasted, then direction=MIX.
Winds (knots) are for the open waters excluding effects of channel and diurnal forcing.
Prob denotes probability of occurrence in per cent. HIGH=90, MED=75, LOW=50
***This unofficial forecast is directed to recreational users. Most predictions beyond 2 days (and less than that for the giant swells) are based on NWS models of the wind, not on observations; thus, accuracy is limited. For up-to-date forecasts, use NWS products.
Forecast skill Winter 97/98 and Winter 98/99
Confused by swell directions? Thanks to Dave Kimball and Mike Parke for this Oahu map. (Other islands pending).